Andhra pradesh
The politics of Andhra Pradesh is far from being straightforward — it is complicated. Those who look at the state as a single political entity will fail to gauge the ground reality. At a broader level the state is divided into three distinct parts — Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra and Uttarandhra (North Andhra). Each has different social and economic issues, grievances, caste equations. And if you further go deep, even each district has its own sentiments, problems and social political equations.
Here I am trying to explain the current social-political scenario in the three regions and Andhra Pradesh as a whole in the context of the forthcoming elections in the state. Let’s start with Rayalaseema which has been politically most active and has the pride of sending six chief ministers, one prime minister (PV Narasimha Rao was an MP from Nandyal) and one president from the region.
Rayalaseema
Even with such an impressive political representation, it has been one of the most backward and deprived regions in the state and the country. Just to give an idea, below are a few facts taken from 2014 UNDP report. The literacy rate in the region is a mere 42 per cent as compared to 66 per cent in Coastal Andhra and 62 per cent national average. The poverty level here is above 76 per cent, much higher than 47 per cent in coastal Andhra and 51 per cent national average. The unemployment rate is 82 per cent compared to just 49 per cent for Coastal Andhra rate and 62 per cent the national average.
Rayalaseema has scarcity of water and rainfall and is one of the most heavily drought hit places in India. This problem has further deepened post bifurcation of the united Andhra Pradesh. There has been a long-standing demand for completion of the Polavaram Irrigation Project which after 14 years of initiation of this project, is still nowhere close to completion. As declared in the Andhra Pradesh Reorganization Bill 2014, the BJP-led Union government has declared this as a national project in 2014. The centre agreed to bear 100 per cent of the project cost including the rehabilitation cost and the project had to be completed by 2019. There is a feeling among the people that there has been large-scale corruption and favouritism in allotting contracts in the project.
As per the Andhra Pradesh Reorganization bill 2014, multiple other projects were promised for the development of this region but hardly any of those are visible on the ground after four years of formation of the state.
The region has a high level of political factionalism and evident law and order problems, but there has been a lack of will to address these issues by the current and earlier
governments. There is deep resentment in the region over being neglected and Coastal Andhra getting preferential treatment. The selection of a place in Coastal Andhra to build the new capital Amravati has further added to this feeling.
If we talk about politics in the region, it has been dominated by Reddys, who in general have been associated with the Congress in the erstwhile undivided Andhra Pradesh, and to YSRCP after the death of YSR. In the four years, the founder and president of YSRCP Jagan Mohan has been extensively working at the grassroots level. He is undertaking Praja Sankalpa Padyatra which he has started from his native village of Idupulapaya in Kadapa and will finish it in Itchapuram village in Srikakulam district, which is the last village bordering Odisha. He is connecting well with the people and has been highlighting failures of the TDP government. He is emerging stronger in the region and in the state. A lot of people see glimpses of his father, former chief minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy, in him. Definitely in 2019 in Rayalaseema YSRCP will add a good number to its current tally.
TDP is set to lose seats in this region for obvious reasons. Pawan Kaylan’s decision to contest from Anantapur at this point seems to just give an indication to the people of Andhra Pradesh that he is serious about his state-wide political debut and to boost the morale of his supporters in the region. If Jan Sena Party is able to build itself in this region in whatever time it is left with before the polls, it may not win more than 2 or 3 seats here but it will definitely damage the prospects of TDP which is already on the back foot in the region.
Coastal Andhra
Coastal Andhra is the all-important region which will decide who will rule Andhra Pradesh post 2019 election. It comprises 89 assembly seats, and this is the region which had elected the highest number of MLAs (58 + 4 BJP) for Chandrababu Naidu in 2014. That was when there was strong wave against the Congress party in the state and the country. The NDA was much better placed than any other alliance for the forthcoming general election and TDP was part of the NDA. Pawan Kaylan’s party had not contested the election and had extended support to NDA. Naidu with his immense experience was the only viable option to head the new state, take care of the Telugu pride and build the state. Since then the political landscape has altered and the chief minister is on the defensive.
He has not been able to deliver the promises made in elections. There have been serious charges of corruption and favouritism against him. There are two strong communities in Coastal Andhra – Kammas and Kapus. Kammas have been with the TDP since its inception and the party and the community have been taking care of each other. Kapus being the community with highest population in the region are a strong and deciding political force. In 39 of 67 seats of East and West Godavari, Krishna and Guntur they can make or break prospects of any party. In 2014, the community wholeheartedly supported TDP, even though YSRCP fielded many Kapu candidates, but the community stayed firm with TDP and even voted for non Kapu candidate of TDP over Kapu candidates of YSRCP. This helped TDP win a large number of seats from this region.
During elections, the TDP had promised reservation for Kapus. Naidu mishandled this reservation issue in the last four years. naturally, there is strong resentment against Naidu among Kapus over this issue. Apart from that there is a feeling in the community that he has not valued their support and has been favouring his own community, the Kammas, over them. Pawan Kalyan who belongs to the Kapu community and is very popular not only in his community but across communities is contesting the coming election. There is a possibility of Kapus deserting TDP and standing behind his Jan Sena Party.
Jagan Mohan Reddy has been getting good response during his Praja Sankalpa Yatra. He has been highlighting Naidu’s failures and is not allowing him to just pass the buck on BJP and play victim. He is emerging stronger, and his popularity graph is going up across state including in this region. The coming weeks will tell how the political mood in this region shapes up further.
Uttarandhra
Uttarandhra, which comprises three districts on the top edge of Andhra Pradesh, is the most backward region in the state. Apart from Vijayawada city and the surrounding areas the rest of the region is undeveloped. As far as Vijayawada is concerned, the locals complain that the city has been economically and politically controlled by outsiders. There is a strong feeling in the region of being neglected by the current and earlier state governments.
The region is rich in minerals, and it shares its border with the mineral-rich areas of Orissa and Chhattisgarh. There is everything to develop this region as an industrial hub, but there has been a lack of political will of not only the current government but earlier governments as well. It has 400 km of coastline, which can be used to develop ports, beaches, but no plan has ever been placed to develop it. The region, especially including the tribal areas, has borne the brunt of chronic diseases. Yet, there is a lack of good health services.
There are many rivers which flow through this region, but there is no proper infrastructure for irrigation. Agriculture is in poor shape and lakhs of people from villages are forced to migrate to the cities. Most of this region is poverty ridden. Icchapuram has the lowest per capita income in the state. In 2014, the region had supported Naidu and elected 29 TDP MLAs out of 34 assembly constituencies in the region. Now, four years down the line, TDP’s hopes of a repeat will most likely be dashed to the ground. People complain that none of the poll promises have been fulfilled. In fact, none of the projects promised as part of Andhra Pradesh Reorganization Bill have been implemented.
In 2014, YSRCP had won all reserved ST seats. This shows that he has a base in the tribal rural areas. He needs to bring the poor backward castes onto his side. The way he has been interacting with the common man during the padyatra, he can definitely emerge as a bigger political force in the region. He needs to chart a plan for development of this region, and highlight that along with the failures of the current government.
Pawan Kalyan, the new entrant in Andhra Politics, and his Jan Sena Party is being well regarded in this region. Kalyan has been extensively touring the region, crowds are coming to his rallies, and he is connecting well with them. He is raising issues important for the region and the common man.
This region which always had the aspirant of getting political significance, is probably finding hope in Pawan Kalyan. It’s too early to draw conclusions from such rallies and initial responses. But, if the Jan Sena Party continues with its efforts and can convince the people that it is actually the ‘Sena’ of the ‘Jan’ of this region who will fight for the region’s rightful aspirations, it can change the political spectrum of this region.
