Author: Rahul Vatsa

Nitish Kumar – The Inevitable Leader in Bihar Politics

Rahul Vatsa

In the politics of this country where caste is a prime poll factor, Nitish Kumar, despite coming from a numerically small caste with not much muscle, is at the helm of politics in the state of Bihar for last two decades. During all this time, he required support from other parties to get majority in the state assembly, and one or the other of the two bigger parties in the state – RJD and BJP – have been happy to support him and be part of his governments. Such prominence he has in the state politics that even his strong critics and political opponents agree that he is the inevitable power center of Bihar politics.

He is probably the only leader in the country who swifts complete 180 degrees in the political space but continues to retain the confidence of the people of his state. In last more than two decades, he has done it so many times that the leaders across parties tag him as ‘PaltuRam’ of the Indian politics. But this is also true that the same leaders are always so keen and happy to welcome him on their side whenever he decides to do so.

One obvious question arises – why he does so? And while he does so, how he has been able to retain the confidence of the people of the state?

In last two decades, Nitish Kumar has built and maintained image of an able administrator and of a leader with strong secular credentials. While administrating the Bihar government, he has never comprised on either of the two. This is despite of being with the right-wing party and being with the party whose top leader(s) have been convicted and are still being trailed for serious corruption charges and disproportionate assets charges.

During 1993-97, when Nitish had changed side for the first time, he had broken out of Janta Dal on the issue of lawlessness in Bihar to form Samta Party in 1993-94 and had later joined hands with the other pole of Bihar politics – BJP in 1997. BJP which at that time was not able to go beyond a level in Bihar politics had warmly welcomed Nitish Kumar. Along with the BJP, he was able to drive Lalu Prasad and the RJD out of power in Bihar. In 2000, he became chief minister for the first time. Later in 2005, the JDU (In 2003 Samta Party was merged with Sharad Yadav led JDU)- BJP alliance swept the state election and from then he continued to lead the coalition government till June 2013 when he had broken ties with the BJP because the later had declared the current Prime Minister and the then Gujrat chief minister Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate despite his strong objection to it. Lalu Prasad was quick to offer unconditional support to JDU. RJD joined the Nitish Kumar government, later together they won the next state election and Nitish Kumar led JDU-RJD government continued in the state. While heading this alliance government, Nitish Kumar had ensured any doubts of revival of jungle raj proved wrong. Later RJD leaders started taking him for granted, his criticism by the RJD leaders had become an everyday affair, there were demands by RJD leaders and cadre and endorsements by RJD top leadership to make Tejaswi chief minister of Bihar. RJD leaders were under the assumption that Nitish had no choice but to stay with them and that too on their terms. Nitish proved them wrong; he came out of the alliance on July 26, 2017, and within a few hours he formed a new government with the BJP which was so keen to join him back.

In 2020 Bihar state election, JDU numbers went down drastically, but BJP numbers were on rise. Nitish seems to have believed that the BJP conspired this with keeping Chirag and LJP in the front. After results were announced, BJP leadership suggested that Nitish Kumar should head the government as he was the alliance face in the election, which he agreed to after initial hesitation and a Nitish led JDU-BJP government was once again formed. To put a psychological pressure on Nitish two deputy chief ministers were made from BJP. Going forward, BJP state leaders started speaking against Nitish Kumar and the desire to have a BJP chief minster in the state. It seemed that this had the silent support of the BJP central leadership. This made Nitish Kumar uncomfortable. There were strong assumptions by the BJP that Nitish cannot go back to RJD, and he would have to stay with it to stay in power to save his party. Nitish proved them wrong; he left the BJP and once again within a few hours formed a new government with RJD as its partner this time. As known in the public space, it seems that there was an understanding between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad to help create space for Nitish Kumar in the opposition politics at the national level and Nitish to make space for Tejaswi Yadav for the bigger role in the state politics. Nitish Kumar successfully put his efforts to bring together the opposition parties on one platform and later a nation-wide alliance (INDIA) was formed. But even after months of formation of the alliance, Nitish was not offered any role in this alliance. It seemed that Lalu Prasad who has good terms with the Congress leadership and some prominent regional party leaders, didn’t put honest efforts to help Nitish Kumar get a leading role in the alliance.

On a side note, Lalu Prasad seemed to be in hurry to bring his son in the top spot probably because he might be not sure of a favorable post 2025 state election scenario. If media reports to be believed, the RJD leadership conspired a coup in JDU to bring down the Nitish Kumar government and form a RJD government with Tejaswi Yadav as the chief minister. Nitish could sense the plot in time and failed it. And since then, the RJD leadership and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) leaders seems to be deeply concerned of the possibility of Nitish Kumar abandoning them and returning to NDA. Till a few months back, no one would have even considered such possibility, but in the current situation this seems very much possible.

For the BJP central leadership who is aiming for a 400+ Lok Sabha seats in 2024 general election, the first challenge is to repeat its 2019 performance in states where it along with tis partners had almost swept. Among such states, Bihar is the one where it must be worried of losing quite a few seats in the current situation. And it must be having a sense that it can repeat the 2019 performance provided Nitish is back in its side. If you listen to the regular statements of the BJP state leaders against Nitish Kumar and for that reason believe, a comeback of Nitish to NDA will not be acceptable, you need to understand the motivation of the BJP for the 2024 general election and the current structure of BJP’s party leadership. All such state leaders would fall in line as soon as BJP central leadership and Nitish Kumar decides for a realignment. It will not only bring relief to BJP in Bihar, but it will also demotivate and demoralize Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) as Nitish is the one who had brought the opposition parties together to form the nation-wide alliance.

If you have looked at Nitish Kumar’s political journey and his major political decisions in last two decades you will agree that once he makes up his mind, he stays firm on it. In the current scenario, he seems to have made up his mind, and this reflects in the statements of his party leaders where they downplay a possible proposal of convenor role for Nitish Kumar in Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), and they are asking to rather make him face of the alliance. Another reason to believe so is the recent development in Arunachal Pradesh where his party JDU has unilaterally declared candidates for the two Lok Sabha seats in the state, in 2019 BJP had won both the seats and the Congress party had come second.

Published at: http://bihartimes.in/Newsbihar/2024/Jan/newsbihar13Jan1.html

Nitish Kumar And The Politics Of Alliance In Bihar

Rahul Vatsa

In the realm of Indian politics, where caste often plays a decisive role, Nitish Kumar has emerged as a prominent leader in the state of Bihar, despite hailing from a numerically smaller caste. Throughout this period, he has consistently held the reins of Bihar’s political landscape, requiring support from other parties to secure a majority in the state assembly. The two major parties in the state, RJD and BJP, have been willing to support him and become part of his governments, highlighting his prominence in Bihar politics. Even his staunchest critics and political opponents acknowledge Nitish Kumar’s undeniable influence in Bihar politics.

Nitish Kumar stands out as possibly the only leader in the country who makes complete 180-degree shifts in the political landscape yet continues to retain the confidence of the people of his state. Over the past two decades, he has done this multiple times, earning him the nickname ‘PaltuRam’ in Indian politics. Interestingly, the same leaders who label him as such are often eager to welcome him to their side whenever he decides to switch alliances.

The question that naturally arises is why he engages in such frequent shifts, and how has he managed to retain the confidence of the people of the state during these transitions?

Over the last two decades, Nitish Kumar has carefully built and maintained an image of an able administrator and a leader with strong secular credentials. Despite being associated with a right-wing party and being with a party whose top leaders have faced serious corruption charges and allegations of disproportionate assets, he has never compromised on either of these principles.

During 1993-97, Nitish Kumar changed sides for the first time, breaking away from Janta Dal on the issue of lawlessness in Bihar to form the Samta Party in 1993-94. He later joined hands with the other pole of Bihar politics – BJP – in 1997. Despite initial challenges, the BJP warmly welcomed Nitish Kumar. Together, they successfully drove Lalu Prasad and the RJD out of power in Bihar. In 2000, he became the chief minister for the first time. Later, in 2005, the JDU (after the 2003 merger of Samta Party with Sharad Yadav-led JDU)-BJP alliance swept the state election, and he continued to lead the coalition government until June 2013 when he severed ties with the BJP due to ideological differences regarding Narendra Modi’s candidacy. Lalu Prasad quickly offered unconditional support to JDU, and the RJD joined the Nitish Kumar government. Together, they won the next state election, and the JDU-RJD government continued in the state. While heading this alliance government, Nitish Kumar ensured that any doubts about the revival of ‘jungle raj’ were proven wrong.

Later, RJD leaders started taking him for granted, and his criticism by RJD leaders became an everyday affair. There were demands by RJD leaders and cadre, along with endorsements by RJD top leadership, to make Tejaswi the chief minister of Bihar. RJD leaders were under the assumption that Nitish had no choice but to stay with them on their terms. Nitish proved them wrong; he came out of the alliance on July 26, 2017, and within a few hours, he formed a new government with the BJP, which was keen to join him back. In the 2020 Bihar state election, JDU numbers went down drastically, but BJP numbers were on the rise. Nitish seems to have believed that the BJP conspired with Chirag and LJP to weaken JDU’s position. After the results were announced, the BJP leadership suggested that Nitish Kumar should head the government as he was the alliance face in the election. He agreed to this after initial hesitation, and a Nitish-led JDU-BJP government was once again formed. To put psychological pressure on Nitish, two deputy chief ministers were appointed from the BJP. However, going forward, BJP state leaders started speaking against Nitish Kumar, expressing a desire to have a BJP chief minister in the state. It seemed that this had the silent support of the BJP central leadership, making Nitish Kumar uncomfortable. There were strong assumptions by the BJP that Nitish could not go back to the RJD, and he would have to stay with the BJP to stay in power and save his party. Nitish proved them wrong; he left the BJP and once again, within a few hours, formed a new government with the RJD as its partner this time. As known in the public space, it seems that there was an understanding between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad to create space for Nitish Kumar in opposition politics at the national level and to make space for Tejaswi Yadav for a more significant role in state politics. Nitish Kumar successfully put efforts to bring together opposition parties on one platform, and later, a nationwide alliance (INDIA) was formed. However, even after months of the alliance’s formation, Nitish was not offered any role in it. It seemed that Lalu Prasad, who has good relations with Congress leadership and some prominent regional party leaders, didn’t put honest efforts to help Nitish Kumar secure a leading role in the alliance.

On a side note, Lalu Prasad seemed to be in a hurry to bring his son to the top spot, probably because he might not be sure of a favorable post-2025 state election scenario. If media reports are to be believed, the RJD leadership conspired a coup in JDU to bring down the Nitish Kumar government and form an RJD government with Tejaswi Yadav as the chief minister. Nitish could sense the plot in time and foiled it. Since then, the RJD leadership and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) leaders seem to be deeply concerned about the possibility of Nitish Kumar abandoning them and returning to the NDA. Until a few months back, no one would have even considered such a possibility, but in the current situation, this seems very much possible.

For the BJP central leadership aiming for 400+ Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 general election, the first challenge is to repeat its 2019 performance in states where it, along with its partners, had almost swept. Among such states, Bihar is the one where it must be worried about losing quite a few seats in the current situation. And it must be having a sense that it can repeat the 2019 performance provided Nitish is back on its side. If you listen to the regular statements of the BJP state leaders against Nitish Kumar and, for that reason, believe that a comeback of Nitish to NDA will not be acceptable, you need to understand the motivation of the BJP for the 2024 general election and the current structure of BJP’s party leadership. All such state leaders would fall in line as soon as the BJP central leadership and Nitish Kumar decide on a realignment. It will not only bring relief to the BJP in Bihar, but it will also demotivate and demoralize the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), as Nitish is the one who brought the opposition parties together to form the nationwide alliance. If you have looked at Nitish Kumar’s political journey and his major political decisions in the last two decades, you will agree that once he makes up his mind, he stays firm on it. In the current scenario, he seems to have made up his mind, and this reflects in the statements of his party leaders, where they downplay a possible proposal of a convenor role for Nitish Kumar in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), and they are asking to make him the face of the alliance. Another reason to believe so is the recent development in Arunachal Pradesh, where his party JDU has unilaterally declared candidates for the two Lok Sabha seats in the state. In 2019, BJP had won both the seats, and the Congress party had come second.

Published at: https://www.oneindia.com/india/opinion-nitish-kumar-and-the-politics-of-alliance-in-bihar-3731199.html?story=3

Begusarai Battle: Will it be for identity or ideology?

Rahul Vatsa

The Begusarai parliamentary constituency, which represents Begusarai district in northern Bihar has a distinct and prominent presence on the political map of Bihar. Unlike other parts of the state and the country, Begusarai district has by and large witnessed healthy, generally clean politics based on ideology. Since independence, the politics in Begusarai has revolved around two prominent political ideologies – Communism and Nationalism. Interestingly both these ideologies have their base cutting across caste, religion and assembly segments.

Nitish Plays His Game of Seats

Rahul Vatsa

The year has started in election mode in Bihar. Janata Dal (United) vice-president Prashant Kishor has more than once asserted in the last few days that the seat-sharing arrangement between JD(U) and BJP in the assembly elections scheduled for October will be divided 1.4:1as it was in the 2009 assembly election — and not 1:1 as was the case in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Another JD(U) leader Ram Chandra Prasad ‘RCP’ Singh was quick to say that the seat-sharing between the two allies would be ‘amicable’. On the face of it, the two statements seem like a joust for No. 2 position in the party. But from a different perspective, it may be a planned strategy that has the blessings of JD(U) president Nitish Kumar.

On the one hand, the two leaders may be preparing the ground for seat-sharing discussions within NDA for the upcoming polls. On the other hand, JD(U) may be working on an alternate alliance at the national level, as and when suitable to it.

JD(U) always enjoyed an upper hand in seat-sharing with BJP in Bihar. That is, until it lost that privilege six years ago. Today, it’s concern is that BJP may push it aside further and bully it to agree on less seats in the state elections. So, it doesn’t want to look defensive before seat-sharing discussions start.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when JD(U) left NDA, it had lost its deposit in 23 out of 38 seats and could win only two seats. A year later, it had contested the 2015 assembly election with an alliance with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Despite RJD having far fewer MLAs than JD(U) in the 2000 Bihar assembly, the latter agreed to share seats 1:1.

In the 2019 general elections, JD(U) was back in NDA. Despite the impressive growth of BJP and demoralising loss of JD(U), the two parties had agreed for a 1:1seat-sharing formula. At this point, Nitish Kumar has no other option but to be with BJP. He can’t go back to RJD.

He is not in a position to forge a ‘third alliance’ in Bihar. So, the best he can do is to bargain hard with BJP and try to ensure JD(U) stays the larger party in NDA in Bihar. While RCP Singh, responding to Kishor’s statement, didn’t contradict the latter’s assertion, it was probably to complete the ‘bargaining loop’ started by Kishor.

In last few years, BJP has not only won seats for itself, but it has also helped its partners improve their individual numbers, whether for Lok Sabha or state assembly elections. Ironically, it’s BJP’s partners who now depend on BJP to win elections, unlike in the past when it was the other way around.

At the national level, BJP had majority of its own in two consecutive terms. The party has, in fact, improved its tally in its second term under the Narendra Modi administration. With such a stature of BJP, there is not much elbow room for non-BJP NDA parties in national politics, and this applies to Nitish Kumar as well.

But unlike other leaders of non-BJP NDA parties, Kumar implicitly registered his disagreement with BJP when he refused the single berth in the Cabinet offered to his party in the Modi administration.

In general, for regional parties, either an alliance led by a national party that is dependent on them, or an alliance of regional parties works favourably. Kishor’s involvement with different regional parties can be viewed as part of a strategy to achieve the second goal.

He has been working in different states, helping non-BJP parties in elections, at many places against BJP. He has been prominent in condemning the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC), trying to build a nationwide political momentum against the Modi government on this issue.

If, going forward, a strong alliance of regional parties builds up at the national level, it will be in favour of JD(U). This means, it can stay in NDA and have more say in the alliance, or join an opposition alliance as and when it’s suitable.

2020 is important for Nitish Kumar, not so much because he has hold on to his chief ministership, but more because he needs to regain the political space he has lost, and re-establish himself as the winning factor for NDA in Bihar.

Delhi: A microcosm of India

Rahul Vatsa

If you have missed tracking the ongoing Lok Sabha election, and on May 12 you are trying to understand how it is going and what is the mood of India overall, just look at Delhi’s seven Lok Sabha seats. Delhi is a smaller version of political India, often termed mini India. It has always mirrored the larger India in the Lok Sabha elections.

Look at the historic Lok Sabha election results of Delhi and India, and you will know that Delhi has always precisely reflected the national results. Pick any Lok Sabha election, enlarge the Delhi numbers to map it to the national level, and you will have an idea how the larger India has polled in that election.

Starting from the 1977 Lok Sabha election, when the first-ever non-Congress government was formed, to the 2014 Lok Sabha election, when for the first time a non-Congress party had got a majority of its own – Delhi has always mirrored the overall mood of India.

The 1977 Lok Sabha election, which was the first to be held after the Emergency imposed by the Indira Gandhi government in June 1975, reflected a clear anti-Congress sentiment throughout the country. This had resulted in an unprecedented win of 345 out of 542 Lok Sabha seats for the Janata Party, and Delhi had truly reflected the mood in the country by electing seven out of seven candidates of the Janata Party.

For the first time in the history of independent India, a non-Congress government was formed in the country at the Centre. But this government didn’t last for long, and the next Lok Sabha election was held in 1980. In this election, the Delhi election results were completely the reverse of the 1977 mandate – all seven MPs elected were from Congress, and again Delhi was in complete sync with India. The Congress party with 353 Lok Sabha seats was back in power.

After the unfortunate assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984, the next Lok Sabha election was held a year prior to the schedule. There was a sympathy wave throughout the country in support of Rajiv Gandhi and the Congress party. Congress had swept the entire country by winning 402 out of 514 Lok Sabha seats, and Delhi was once again very clear and in sync with India with its mandate of seven out of seven for Congress. The government of Rajiv Gandhi completed five years of its term.

Then there was 1989 Lok Sabha election – Congress was once again unpopular due to various facts known to everyone. In the election, the Congress party had won the highest number of seats (197), but the Janata Dal (143) with an alliance with BJP (85) and support of the Communist parties had formed the government.

The numbers in Delhi were – BJP – 4, Congress – 2, Janata Dal – 1, which was not in proportion to the numbers at the national level.

But if we mistake it to think that the Delhi results did not reflect India, we got it wrong.

We must remember the fact that in this election, BJP had grown from two MPs to 85 MPs, and that was unprecedented growth for a party, and Delhi didn’t miss to read it and reflect this massive change in the politics of the country with its results.

Like the 1977 Janata Party government, the 1989 Janata Dal-led government as well did not last for long – at first, the VP Singh government fell due to the split in the Janata Dal, and later the minority government of Chandra Shekhar fell when Congress withdrew support.

The country was forced to face another general election in 1991. In an unfortunate suicide attack, Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated during the campaign of the second phase of the election. This once again had created sympathy for the Gandhi family and the Congress party. Though it did not create a wave-like in 1984, the Congress party won 244 seats and was able to form the government. The Delhi numbers were – BJP – 5, Congress – 2. This once again truly reflected the fact that BJP was not only able to hold its increased support base but was able to grow further to 120 Lok Sabha seats.

Five years later, in the 1996 Lok Sabha election, BJP continued to grow further by winning 160 seats and become the single largest party for the first time. The Delhi results with five Lok Sabha seats for BJP and two seats for Congress were in sync with the national results. The BJP-led NDA had formed the government under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, but it lasted just for 13 days. Later HD Deve Gowda and Inder Kumar Gujral became prime minister with outside support from Congress.

Like the 1989 Lok Sabha, this Lok Sabha did not last for long either, and another general election was necessitated in 1998. In this election, BJP won 182 seats and the Delhi contribution to it was six out of seven seats. An NDA government was formed under the leadership of Vajpayee which later lost a trust vote by one vote causing the government to fall. No other alliance had the numbers, and so, there was another general election in 1999, in which the NDA further increased its tally and Delhi elected seven out of seven candidates for BJP.

In the next two Lok Sabha elections held in 2004 and 2009, it was Congress which had formed the government and had run the government successfully for the two terms. The Delhi numbers in the two elections were BJP – 1, Congress – 5 and BJP – 0, Congress – 7 respectively. Once again Delhi had correctly reflected the mood of the country.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, BJP got a majority of its own, and to no surprise of anyone, Delhi, like always, was in sync with the national tally. The numbers were – BJP – 7, Congress – 0 and AAP – 0.

Now it’s the 2019 Lok Sabha elections – six phases of the election are done. The big question is: Will Delhi continue to reflect the mood of the country in 2019? Historic results suggest that it has never differed with the overall mandate for the country. So, with that assumption, will it give a mixed mandate or will it make it decisive in favour of one of the three political forces in the fray in Delhi and in India – the BJP-led NDA, the Congress-led UPA and the regional parties, and AAP in Delhi.

As per many surveys and analysis, BJP is ahead of its opponents in Delhi, but it does not have a definite edge like in 2014. But like in many other parts of the country, in Delhi as well the opposition is not united, even after discussing it till the end. And this is making the contest less difficult for BJP in Delhi and everywhere else in the country.

BJP’s Look East strategy for 2019: Modi may contest from Kolkata or Puri

Rahul Vatsa

The significance that North India had in the BJP’s 2014 general election strategy, probably it will be what East India will be in the 2019 general election. And while Varanasi was the epicenter of 2014 general election, it may be Puri or Kolkata in 2019.

North India, to be precise the Hindi heartland, will continue to be the region which the BJP would look at to get the highest number of its candidates elected from. But as it almost reached the highhest possible in the state in 2014, even in the most favorable political circumstances it would be difficult for it to repeat this performance.

In 2014, the political scenario was favourable for the BJP and the NDA. There was a strong sentiment against the Congress throughout the country; there was no third front or any kind of understanding between the regional parties even at the state level. In such a scenario, the BJP-led NDA could convincingly present itself as the alternative to the Congress and the UPA. Further, as the BJP had a strong base in North India, it could leverage this political opportunity here.

In 2019, the BJP doesn’t have a similar advantage, and whatever anti-incumbency exists is aimed at it alone. The Congress, after losing several elections since 2014, has made an excellent comeback in the last one year. This is evident in its recent wins in the three important Hindi heartland states.

The third front, which has been discussed for long, may finally take form now. So, there is likelihood of three political fronts in the 2019 election. However, there seems to be an understanding being developed among the opposition parties across the two fronts to ensure a one-on-one contest with NDA wherever possible. And it will definitely impact BJP’s 2019 prospects to some extent, more so in the North India.

In western India as well, the BJP touched the ceiling in 2014, and with a fragile partner in Maharashtra and the Congress being is better shape in Gujarat than it has been in the last 20 years, the best it can expect in this region is to reach closer to its 2014 numbers.

In the south, apart from Karnataka, the BJP has increased its footprint to a little extent only in Kerala and it can expect to win one or two seats here. In Karnataka, unlike in 2014, the BJP will have to face a united Congress and Janata Dal-Secular alliance, and in this scenario, the BJP might be aiming to just retain its 2014 numbers.

In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu, it is still not considered a political force.

So, the only regions where it can look to add numbers and compensate for likely losses in northern and western India is the northeast and eastern India. Till a few years back, northeast India, except Tripura, was a strong bastion of the Congress and Tripura was a stronghold of the Communists. In the last four years, the BJP has done a tremendous job there. It has strengthened itself at the ground and has uprooted the Congress and the Communists.

The northeast always had a feeling of being ignored at the national level. Now, probably for the first time in several decades, there is a sense of being valued by the government in Delhi. The Narendra Modi government has started many big ticket projects for the development of this region and a few of these have been completed on a priority basis. The BJP must be looking to reap the benefits of its hard work in thne region and win the majority of seats here with its alliance partners in 2019.

Eastern India, which includes Odisha, West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand, constitutes 117 parliamentary seats. In 2014, the NDA had won 46 seats here, and the BJP’s number was 37, but the majority of these wins were from Bihar and Jharkhand. Out of 63 seats in West Bengal and Odisha, BJP/NDA had won just three seats. The Congress party has not been able to revive itself in this region and is considered only a marginal force. The regional parties are strong and there will be a direct contest between the BJP/NDA and the regional parties.

In Bihar, in 2014, the BJP had won 22 seats, and the NDA tally was 31. It was a triangular contest which had benefited the NDA. With major realignments since then, 2019 will be a direct contest between the UPA and the NDA, and NDA must be aiming to at least retain its numbers.

In Jharkhand, out of 14 seats, BJP had won 12 with two going to JMM. The current BJP government in the state is the only one set to complete its term and has no corruption charges. The BJP must be looking to retain its position here here as well.

Now let’s look at Odisha, which is strategically very important for the BJP’s 2019 plans. It has been a stronghold of Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), who has been ruling the state for last 19 years.

In 2014, the BJD had won 20 out of 21 seats and one seat had gone to BJP. The 2019 elections will be the first in the last 19 years when the BJD will be facing anti-incumbency. Many people in the state feel that the BJD being in power for such a long time is deeply entrenched in the system, resulting in favouritism and corruption at every level. There is resentment in the BJD more than ever. Some senior leaders have left the party. The Congress, which had once ruled the state for a long time, has become a distant third player. So, there is an opportunity for the BJP, which has worked hard in last few years and has established itself as the main opposition party in the state.

There is lot of talk in the media about Narendra Modi contesting the 2019 general election from Puri, a city which is considered of Odisha’s religious capital. The historic Lord Jagannath temple in Puri is the centre of devotion for millions of Hindus not only in Odisha but in the adjoining states as well.

Narendra Modi contesting from Puri may create enthusiasm in the party in Odisha and adjoining states — quite equal to what he had been able to generate in Uttar Pradesh and north India in 2014. The BJP must be looking forward to taking advantage of the anti-incumbency against the BJD government and the popularity of Narendra Modi to win seats in the state.

West Bengal, which sends 42 MPs to Parliament, is another state in eastern India which the BJP must be looking at for bigger gains in 2019. The BJP has been very aggressive here in recent years and has left behind the Congress and the CP-M to establish itself as the main opposition party in the state. The local BJP leaders have been picking each and every opportunity to attack the Trinamool Congress and Mamta Banerjee in an effort to gain ground. Many political pundits believe what Himanta Biswa Sarma has done for BJP in Assam, Mukul Roy can do in West Bengal.

West Bengal is high on BJP’s agenda and this is crucial for its 2019 plans. Therefore, in case Modi doesn’t contest from Puri, there is high possibility that Amit Shah may contest from Kolkata, and it may dramatically change the political atmosphere in the state and impact its prospects in the adjoining states as well.

If the “Look East” strategy works for BJP, it can compensate for likely losses elsewhere — and with some parties joining the NDA post-poll, it should achieve a comfortable majority in 2019.

Lok Sabha polls 2019: An election of possibilities in Bihar

Rahul Vatsa

The ongoing Lok Sabha election in Bihar is unique in the sense that no previous election whether of the assembly or a general election can be taken as reference while analysing electoral prospects of the parties in the state. Let’s get into the details and try to see why it is so.

To understand the current political scenario and why the historic electoral results may not be relevant for these elections in Bihar we need to go back a little – to 2013 – and analyse the politics of Bihar from then onwards. The Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal-United (JD-U), which has been at the core of politics in Bihar in the last 23 years, has gone through several twists and turns in the last six years.

After leading a formidable alliance with the BJP for 17 years, it severed ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in June 2013, protesting against the decision of the BJP to declare Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate. It needs to be noted that Modi was brought in by the BJP in order to rally Hindu nationalistic sentiment. Nitish Kumar was worried of losing his Muslim support base in Bihar and decided to part ways with the BJP. In a damage limitation exercise, the BJP got the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and the newly formed Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) of Upendra Kushwaha into the NDA fold. In the 2014 polls, against the backdrop of the Modi wave and due to the strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the incumbent UPA government, the BJP-led alliance got unprecedented success, winning 31 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar.

The results were overwhelming for the BJP and its allies and shocking for Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad who considered themselves to be bigger political forces than the BJP in Bihar. After coming to power at the national level, the BJP continued to convincingly win most Assembly elections held in 2014 and 2015 – Arunachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. Worried, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad joined hands to contest the 2015 Bihar Assembly election along with the Congress party. By this time, Jitan Ram Manjhi had quit the JD-U, formed his own party, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and joined the NDA.

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During the election campaign, Modi had tried to make it a Modi vs others contest. And here he had failed to understand the political dynamics of Bihar. His personal attacks on Nitish Kumar backfired for the NDA and the alliance got the complete of the Muslims, majority of the OBCs and EBCs. This gave a glimpse of the Lalu Prasad era in Bihar. The Mahagathbandhan swept the state and won 3/4th of the seats. One significant outcome of this election, was the revival of the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar. But the JD-U-RJD alliance didn’t last even two years for reasons well known to everyone and in 2017 Nitish Kumar finally returned to the NDA fold.

Before the 2019 general election, with so many parties in the NDA, and each having its own demands for seats to contest, it was not possible to keep everyone happy. To add to this, it was well known that Nitish Kumar was not on good terms with Kushwaha and Manjhi. Such a scenario made the RLSP, HAM and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) of Mukesh Sahni wary of their future in the NDA.

Meanwhile, in the absence of Lalu Prasad and under tremendous pressure to prove himself, Tejashwi Yadav was eager to welcome any party which wanted to quit the NDA and join the Bihar Mahagathbandhan. Eventually, the RLSP, HAM and VIP quit the NDA and joined the Mahagathbandhan.

So, there is now a bipolar contest in Bihar – the NDA comprising the BJP, JD(U) and hte LJP on the one side and the Mahagathbhandhan of RJD, the Congress party, Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), VIP and HAM. Let’s try to understand the current political dynamics in the state in the context of the ongoing general election 2019.

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To start with, let’s try to find out what impact the new entrants from the NDA to the Mahagathbandhan may bring in this election. The RLSP had won all three seats had contested in 2014 but the credit for the victory had largely gone to the Modi wave. A year later, in the 2015 assembly election, the RLSP, and HAM could win only two of the 23 seats and one out of 21 seats it contested respectively. It has been four years since, and both parties – as also VIP – have increased in strength. However, the 2019 election is the first election which will measure the strength of these newly formed regional parties.

Any gain for these parties is a direct loss to the NDA but more to the JD-U, as in the last two decades Nitish Kumar had successfully connected a large section of the OBCs and EBCs with the JD-U. Hence, neither the 2014 general election nor the 2015 assembly election can be taken as reference points to predict the impact these parties may bring to this election – in terms of improving the chances of the Mahagathbandhan and causing damage to the NDA.

For the RJD, the biggest challenge in this election has been the absence of Lalu Prasad. It is contesting an election for the first time in his absence. There has been clear impact of his absence being felt, there is lot of dissidence in the RJD’s first family, the party and the Mahagathbandhan. At many places, officially or unofficially, Mahagathbandhan leaders are contesting against the alliance’s official candidate. Another big concern for Tejashwi Yadav has been the fact that he has not been able to maintain the legacy of Lalu Prasad as the only leader of the Yadavs in Bihar.

As for Nitish Kumar, the biggest is that the Muslims seem to be unhappy with him for returning to the NDA. There is a general feeling in the community that under the Narendra Modi regime, intolerance has increased in the country. And so, at least in this election, the Muslims in Bihar seem to have made up their mind to not vote for any candidate who will help the BJP return to power in Delhi.

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There is another worry – the possibility of losing a sizable chunk of the OBC and EBC support to the Mahagathbandhan through caste-based smaller parties like the RLSP, the VIP and the HAM. Hence, the JD-U in 2019 may not have the same strength as in the previous elections.

For the BJP and the LJP, the core support base among the upper castes and the Paswans respectively has stayed almost firm. In recent years, both the BJP and the LJP have tried to broaden their support base, but to what extent they have been successful in doing so, and how much the recent alignments in the two fronts will impact such possibilities is getting tested afresh in this election. Many schemes launched by the union government have benefited people in rural areas. These are schemes like Ujjawala, the toilet scheme, rural housing scheme, rural electrification and rural road connectivity.

After discussing all this we can say that in the 2019 general election, the political situation in Bihar is very different from that in 2014, the 2015 Assembly election or any other election held earlier. If in 2014, there was a triangular contest, in 2015 there was an entirely different scenario where there was a consolidation of the majority of the OBCs, EBCs and Muslims in favour of the JD-U-RJD-Congress alliance. If we go further back in history, during the 17 years of the JD(U)-BJP rule, the NDA had strong backing of the upper castes, Kurmi, Kushwaha, and a larger section of EBC, SC castes and a section of the Muslims. Earlier to that, during the Lalu Prasad era, the RJD had support of almost all the OBCs, EBCs and SCs along with Muslims. Hence, for the 2019 general election none of the previous elections can be taken as reference.

In an election with such diverse possibilities and with so many facts and claims to be tested afresh; any precise prediction of results may just go wrong. But a minute study of the ground reality reveals a few facts, and based on these facts it looks like there is a close contest in quite a few Lok Sabha constituencies. Tejashwi Yadav has, overtime, been able to contain the dissidence within the family, party and the Mahagathbandhan. He has also been able to keep the Yadavs with him in a majority of the constituencies by successfully creating a sympathy for Lalu Prasad among the Yadavs and a feeling that the Yadavs need to stay together. The RLSP and VIP seem to have been able to mobilise voters on caste lines in many constituencies.

It can be stated that the 2019 general election in Bihar will not be as easy for the NDA as it was in 2014. The NDA and the Mahagathbandhan may be anywhere between 28-22 seats and 12-18 seats respectively. There can be some surprising results as well. In some seats which are being counted as safe for the NDA, there is actually a close contest.

The results on May 23 will not only give the actual numbers, but will as well indicate which way the politics of Bihar is heading for.

Assembly Polls to be a contest over development

Rahul Vatsa

Andhra pradesh

The politics of Andhra Pradesh is far from being straightforward — it is complicated. Those who look at the state as a single political entity will fail to gauge the ground reality. At a broader level the state is divided into three distinct parts — Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra and Uttarandhra (North Andhra). Each has different social and economic issues, grievances, caste equations. And if you further go deep, even each district has its own sentiments, problems and social political equations.

Here I am trying to explain the current social-political scenario in the three regions and Andhra Pradesh as a whole in the context of the forthcoming elections in the state. Let’s start with Rayalaseema which has been politically most active and has the pride of sending six chief ministers, one prime minister (PV Narasimha Rao was an MP from Nandyal) and one president from the region.

Rayalaseema

Even with such an impressive political representation, it has been one of the most backward and deprived regions in the state and the country. Just to give an idea, below are a few facts taken from 2014 UNDP report. The literacy rate in the region is a mere 42 per cent as compared to 66 per cent in Coastal Andhra and 62 per cent national average. The poverty level here is above 76 per cent, much higher than 47 per cent in coastal Andhra and 51 per cent national average. The unemployment rate is 82 per cent compared to just 49 per cent for Coastal Andhra rate and 62 per cent the national average.

Rayalaseema has scarcity of water and rainfall and is one of the most heavily drought hit places in India. This problem has further deepened post bifurcation of the united Andhra Pradesh. There has been a long-standing demand for completion of the Polavaram Irrigation Project which after 14 years of initiation of this project, is still nowhere close to completion. As declared in the Andhra Pradesh Reorganization Bill 2014, the BJP-led Union government has declared this as a national project in 2014. The centre agreed to bear 100 per cent of the project cost including the rehabilitation cost and the project had to be completed by 2019. There is a feeling among the people that there has been large-scale corruption and favouritism in allotting contracts in the project.

As per the Andhra Pradesh Reorganization bill 2014, multiple other projects were promised for the development of this region but hardly any of those are visible on the ground after four years of formation of the state.

The region has a high level of political factionalism and evident law and order problems, but there has been a lack of will to address these issues by the current and earlier

governments. There is deep resentment in the region over being neglected and Coastal Andhra getting preferential treatment. The selection of a place in Coastal Andhra to build the new capital Amravati has further added to this feeling.

If we talk about politics in the region, it has been dominated by Reddys, who in general have been associated with the Congress in the erstwhile undivided Andhra Pradesh, and to YSRCP after the death of YSR. In the four years, the founder and president of YSRCP Jagan Mohan has been extensively working at the grassroots level. He is undertaking Praja Sankalpa Padyatra which he has started from his native village of Idupulapaya in Kadapa and will finish it in Itchapuram village in Srikakulam district, which is the last village bordering Odisha. He is connecting well with the people and has been highlighting failures of the TDP government. He is emerging stronger in the region and in the state. A lot of people see glimpses of his father, former chief minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy, in him. Definitely in 2019 in Rayalaseema YSRCP will add a good number to its current tally.

TDP is set to lose seats in this region for obvious reasons. Pawan Kaylan’s decision to contest from Anantapur at this point seems to just give an indication to the people of Andhra Pradesh that he is serious about his state-wide political debut and to boost the morale of his supporters in the region. If Jan Sena Party is able to build itself in this region in whatever time it is left with before the polls, it may not win more than 2 or 3 seats here but it will definitely damage the prospects of TDP which is already on the back foot in the region.

Coastal Andhra

Coastal Andhra is the all-important region which will decide who will rule Andhra Pradesh post 2019 election. It comprises 89 assembly seats, and this is the region which had elected the highest number of MLAs (58 + 4 BJP) for Chandrababu Naidu in 2014. That was when there was strong wave against the Congress party in the state and the country. The NDA was much better placed than any other alliance for the forthcoming general election and TDP was part of the NDA. Pawan Kaylan’s party had not contested the election and had extended support to NDA. Naidu with his immense experience was the only viable option to head the new state, take care of the Telugu pride and build the state. Since then the political landscape has altered and the chief minister is on the defensive.

He has not been able to deliver the promises made in elections. There have been serious charges of corruption and favouritism against him. There are two strong communities in Coastal Andhra – Kammas and Kapus. Kammas have been with the TDP since its inception and the party and the community have been taking care of each other. Kapus being the community with highest population in the region are a strong and deciding political force. In 39 of 67 seats of East and West Godavari, Krishna and Guntur they can make or break prospects of any party. In 2014, the community wholeheartedly supported TDP, even though YSRCP fielded many Kapu candidates, but the community stayed firm with TDP and even voted for non Kapu candidate of TDP over Kapu candidates of YSRCP. This helped TDP win a large number of seats from this region.

During elections, the TDP had promised reservation for Kapus. Naidu mishandled this reservation issue in the last four years. naturally, there is strong resentment against Naidu among Kapus over this issue. Apart from that there is a feeling in the community that he has not valued their support and has been favouring his own community, the Kammas, over them. Pawan Kalyan who belongs to the Kapu community and is very popular not only in his community but across communities is contesting the coming election. There is a possibility of Kapus deserting TDP and standing behind his Jan Sena Party.

Jagan Mohan Reddy has been getting good response during his Praja Sankalpa Yatra. He has been highlighting Naidu’s failures and is not allowing him to just pass the buck on BJP and play victim. He is emerging stronger, and his popularity graph is going up across state including in this region. The coming weeks will tell how the political mood in this region shapes up further.

Uttarandhra

Uttarandhra, which comprises three districts on the top edge of Andhra Pradesh, is the most backward region in the state. Apart from Vijayawada city and the surrounding areas the rest of the region is undeveloped. As far as Vijayawada is concerned, the locals complain that the city has been economically and politically controlled by outsiders. There is a strong feeling in the region of being neglected by the current and earlier state governments.

The region is rich in minerals, and it shares its border with the mineral-rich areas of Orissa and Chhattisgarh. There is everything to develop this region as an industrial hub, but there has been a lack of political will of not only the current government but earlier governments as well. It has 400 km of coastline, which can be used to develop ports, beaches, but no plan has ever been placed to develop it. The region, especially including the tribal areas, has borne the brunt of chronic diseases. Yet, there is a lack of good health services.

There are many rivers which flow through this region, but there is no proper infrastructure for irrigation. Agriculture is in poor shape and lakhs of people from villages are forced to migrate to the cities. Most of this region is poverty ridden. Icchapuram has the lowest per capita income in the state. In 2014, the region had supported Naidu and elected 29 TDP MLAs out of 34 assembly constituencies in the region. Now, four years down the line, TDP’s hopes of a repeat will most likely be dashed to the ground. People complain that none of the poll promises have been fulfilled. In fact, none of the projects promised as part of Andhra Pradesh Reorganization Bill have been implemented.

In 2014, YSRCP had won all reserved ST seats. This shows that he has a base in the tribal rural areas. He needs to bring the poor backward castes onto his side. The way he has been interacting with the common man during the padyatra, he can definitely emerge as a bigger political force in the region. He needs to chart a plan for development of this region, and highlight that along with the failures of the current government.

Pawan Kalyan, the new entrant in Andhra Politics, and his Jan Sena Party is being well regarded in this region. Kalyan has been extensively touring the region, crowds are coming to his rallies, and he is connecting well with them. He is raising issues important for the region and the common man.

This region which always had the aspirant of getting political significance, is probably finding hope in Pawan Kalyan. It’s too early to draw conclusions from such rallies and initial responses. But, if the Jan Sena Party continues with its efforts and can convince the people that it is actually the ‘Sena’ of the ‘Jan’ of this region who will fight for the region’s rightful aspirations, it can change the political spectrum of this region.